Maria Vazquez Montes
BSc, MSc, PhD
Senior Statistician
Applying modelling strategies to medical research
My current research interest focuses on diagnostic, prognostic and risk prediction modelling. I disseminate good practice and create examples of methodologically sound model development and validation. I am an Associate Editor of the journal BMC Diagnostic and Prognostic Research.
Current projects
I am using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and the SAIL Databank to help improve the management of recurrent urinary tract infections in adult women and reduce the risk of antimicrobial resistance.
I am also using CPRD data to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident heart failure, a major public health problem with rising prevalence, particularly in the elderly.
Expertise
I provide statistical expertise for health research across a broad range of disciplines, including mental health, ophthalmology, and chronic diseases such as diabetes, kidney disease, and cancer. My statistical expertise includes statistical control process, latent class analysis, multilevel modelling, causal inference, survival analysis, and meta-analysis.
I co-coordinate the online module Introduction to Statistics for Health Care Research and teach on the Clinical Prediction Rules module of the Evidence-Based Health Care Master's programmes. I am a non-Stipendiary Lecturer in Human Sciences for St Hugh's College.
Biography
Before joining the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences in 2008, I completed a PhD in Statistics at the University of Warwick (UK), a MSc in Statistics at Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas/Universidad de Guanajuato (Mexico), and a BSc in Mathematics at the Universidad de Yucatán (Mexico).
Recent publications
Defining recurrent urinary tract infection and reinfection risk: electronic health record study.
Journal article
Vazquez-Montes MD. et al, (2026), BJGP Open
External validation, recalibration and updating of the OxSATS risk model for suicide after self-harm in England
Preprint
Lagerberg T. et al, (2026)
Natriuretic peptides testing and survival prediction models for chronic heart failure: a systematic review of added prognostic value.
Journal article
Smith CA. et al, (2025), Diagn Progn Res, 9
The impact of inter-infection time on antimicrobial resistance profiles in women with multiple urinary tract infections over time
Journal article
Honda T. et al, (2025), Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, 80, 2234 - 2240
Risk of repeat self-harm among individuals presenting to healthcare services: development and validation of a clinical risk assessment model (OxSET)
Journal article
Fazel S. et al, (2024), BMJ Mental Health, 27

