DPhil Supervision
My current research interests include methods for meta-analysis, and methods for observational studies in behavioural medicine and hypertension in particular. My publications, listed on my webpage at the department of primary care health sciences, give the best overview of my research.
I currently supervise part-time DPhil students on the Evidence Based Health Care (EBHC) programme and a full-time DPhil student in the primary care department, as well as several MSc students.
Websites
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MSc EBHC Medical Statistics
Part-time MSc in medical statistics for health care professionals
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Essential Medical Statistics
Part of the Evidence-Based Health Care MSc Programme
Richard Stevens
BA MSc PhD
Professor of Medical Statistics
- Deputy Director, Statistics Group
- Course Director: MSc EBHC Medical Statistics
- Supernumerary Fellow, Kellogg College
I am the course director of the MSc in Evidence Based Health Care Medical Statistics, a continuing professional development course for those in full-time clinical practice seeking expertise in medical statistics.
As a medical statistician, most of my research, whether I'm leading the project or supporting colleagues, is intended for clinical journals. My chief methodological interests are in meta-analysis.
I am a member of the Diabetes UK research grants panel, and an Associate Editor of the journal BMC Diagnostic and Prognostic Research.
Graduate students: I am currently supervising two students on DPhil Evidence Based Health care and one student on DPhil Primary Care, and several MSc students. At present I do not have capacity for additional DPhil students: if you are a potential doctoral student seeking a supervisor, please visit the list of supervisors advertising projects in the department.
Key publications
Propensity scores in surgery: Don't believe the hype
Journal article
Stevens RJ. and Oke JL., (2022), Colorectal Disease, 24, 896 - 898
Validation of clinical prediction models: what does the “calibration slope” really measure?
Journal article
Stevens RJ. and Poppe KK., (2020), Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 118, 93 - 99
Cancer outcomes and all-cause mortality in adults allocated to metformin: Systematic review and collaborative meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials
Journal article
Stevens RJ. et al, (2012), Diabetologia, 55, 2593 - 2603
Normal ranges of heart rate and respiratory rate in children from birth to 18 years of age: A systematic review of observational studies
Journal article
Fleming S. et al, (2011), The Lancet, 377, 1011 - 1018
Recent publications
Consultation-based interventions to optimize medication adherence in primary care: a systematic review
Journal article
Callan C. et al, (2026), Family Practice, 43
The applicability to systematic reviews of common effect, random effects and fixed effects approaches to meta-analysis
Journal article
STEVENS R., (2026), Statistical Methods in Medical Research
Effect of the English National Enhanced Service on weight management referral rate: an interrupted time-series analysis
Journal article
Haffner SJP. et al, (2026), BMJ Open, 16
Erratum: Correction: The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study (PLoS medicine (2023) 20 4 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004223.)
Journal article
Sheppard JP. et al, (2026), Plos Medicine, 23
A Ketogenic Diet for Treatment-Resistant Depression: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Journal article
Gao M. et al, (2026), JAMA Psychiatry
Optimising the monitoring and management of raised blood pressure including proteinuria testing during pregnancy: the BUMP research programme including 2 RCTs
Journal article
McManus RJ. et al, (2026)
A randomised controlled trial of a low-carbohydrate digitally-supported weight loss programme for type 2 diabetes
Journal article
Morris E. et al, (2025), Npj Digital Medicine, 8
Predicting hypotension, syncope, and fracture risk in patients indicated for antihypertensive treatment: the STRATIFY models
Journal article
Koshiaris C. et al, (2025), Nature Communications, 16
The Effect of Weight Loss Before In Vitro Fertilization on Reproductive Outcomes in Women With Obesity : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Journal article
Michalopoulou M. et al, (2025), Annals of Internal Medicine, 178, 1298 - 1313
The Effect of Weight Loss Before In Vitro Fertilization on Reproductive Outcomes in Women With Obesity
Journal article
Michalopoulou M. et al, (2025), Annals of Internal Medicine
Exploring the variation in muscle response testing accuracy through repeatability and reproducibility
Journal article
Jensen AM. et al, (2025), Plos One, 20
Fracture prediction in rheumatoid arthritis: validation of FRAX with bone mineral density for incident major osteoporotic fractures
Conference paper
Richards C. et al, (2025), Rheumatology, 64, 228 - 234
Developing prediction models for electrolyte abnormalities in patients indicated for antihypertensive therapy: evidence-based treatment and monitoring recommendations
Journal article
Wang A. et al, (2025), Journal of Hypertension
The importance of experience: insights into optimal home-blood pressure monitoring regimens from the TASMINH4 Trial
Journal article
Morris EC. et al, (2025), Journal of Hypertension
Strategies to improve the implementation of preventive care in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Journal article
Heath L. et al, (2024), BMC Medicine, 22
The association between restricted activity and patient outcomes in older adults: systematic literature review and meta-analysis
Journal article
Henderson IL. et al, (2024), BMC Geriatrics, 24
Global Blood Pressure Screening during and after Pregnancy: May Measurement Month 2019
Journal article
Bowen L. et al, (2024), Hypertension, 81, 2298 - 2306
Research inefficiencies in external validation studies of the Framingham Wilson coronary heart disease risk rule: A systematic review
Journal article
Ban JW. et al, (2024), PLoS ONE, 19
Evaluating the efficacy and mechanisms of a ketogenic diet as adjunctive treatment for people with treatment-resistant depression: A protocol for a randomised controlled trial
Journal article
Gao M. et al, (2024), Journal of Psychiatric Research, 174, 230 - 236
Comparison of clinic and home blood pressure readings in higher risk pregnancies – Secondary analysis of the BUMP 1 trial
Journal article
Pihl K. et al, (2024), Pregnancy Hypertension, 36
Understanding the accuracy of body temperature measurements in patient triage during cancer treatment: a single-site retrospective audit
Journal article
FLEMING S. and STEVENS R., (2024), Cancer Nursing Practice
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the delivery of preventive healthcare? An interrupted time series analysis of adults in English primary care from 2018 to 2022
Journal article
Heath L. et al, (2024), Preventive Medicine, 181
The diagnostic Accuracy of Visual versus automated dipstick proteinuria testing in Pregnancy: A systematic review and Meta-Analysis
Journal article
Jones C. et al, (2024), Pregnancy Hypertension, 35, 73 - 81
Predicting the risk of acute kidney injury in primary care:
Journal article
Koshiaris C. et al, (2023), British Journal of General Practice, 73, E605 - E614
Association between the month of starting a weight management program and weight change in people at high risk of type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study
Journal article
Koutoukidis DA. et al, (2023), Obesity, 31, 1707 - 1716
The association between antihypertensive treatment and serious adverse events by age and frailty: A cohort study
Journal article
Sheppard JP. et al, (2023), PLoS Medicine, 20
PREDITING THE RISK OF FRACTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATIFY-FRACTURE PREDICTION MODEL
Conference paper
Wang A. et al, (2023), JOURNAL OF HUMAN HYPERTENSION, 37, 11 - 11
THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT AND SERIOUS ADVERSE EVENTS BY PREVIOUS HISTORY OF ADVERSE EVENTS: AN OBSERVATIONAL COHORT STUDY
Conference paper
Sheppard J. et al, (2023), JOURNAL OF HYPERTENSION, 41, E84 - E84
PREDITING THE RISK OF FRACTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATIFY-FRACTURE PREDICTION MODEL
Conference paper
Wang A. et al, (2023), JOURNAL OF HYPERTENSION, 41, E3 - E3
Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines
Journal article
Simmonds EG. et al, (2022), iScience, 25
Cross-sectional diagnostic accuracy study of self-testing for proteinuria during hypertensive pregnancies: The UDIP study
Journal article
Jakubowski BE. et al, (2022), BJOG: An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, 129, 2142 - 2148
Propensity scores in surgery: Don't believe the hype
Journal article
Stevens RJ. and Oke JL., (2022), Colorectal Disease, 24, 896 - 898
How is model-related uncertainty quantified and reported in different disciplines?
Preprint
Simmonds EG. et al, (2022)
THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT AND SERIOUS ADVERSE EVENTS BY AGE AND FRAILTY: AN OBSERVATIONAL COHORT STUDY OF 3.8 MILLION PATIENTS FOLLOWED UP FOR 10 YEARS
Other
Sheppard J. et al, (2022), Journal of hypertension, 40
PREDICTING THE RISK OF SYNCOPE IN PATIENTS WITH AN INDICATION FOR ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATIFY-SYNCOPE PREDICTION MODEL
Other
Constantinos K. et al, (2022), Journal of hypertension, 40
PREDICTING THE RISK OF FALLS IN PATIENTS WITH AN INDICATION FOR ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE STRATIFY-FALLS PREDICTION MODEL
Journal article
Archer L. et al, (2022), Journal of hypertension, 40
Effects of a group-based weight management programme on anxiety and depression: A randomised controlled trial (RCT)
Journal article
Heath L. et al, (2022), PLoS ONE, 17
Spontaneous Reporting to Regulatory Authorities of Suspected Adverse Drug Reactions to COVID-19 Vaccines Over Time: The Effect of Publicity
Journal article
Ferner RE. et al, (2022), Drug Safety, 45, 137 - 144
Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study
Journal article
Archer L. et al, (2022), BMJ
Statistical models for the deterioration of kidney function in a primary care population: A retrospective database analysis
Journal article
Feakins BG. et al, (2022), F1000Research, 8
Blood pressure self-monitoring in pregnant women from ethnic minorities and deprived areas: A secondary analysis of the BUMP 1 trial
Other
Omorodion BE. et al, (2022), JOURNAL OF HUMAN HYPERTENSION, 36, 3 - 4
PREDICTING THE RISK OF SYNCOPE IN PATIENTS WITH AN INDICATION FOR ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATIFY-SYNCOPE PREDICTION MODEL
Conference paper
Constantinos K. et al, (2022), JOURNAL OF HYPERTENSION, 40, E5 - E5
PREDICTING THE RISK OF FALLS IN PATIENTS WITH AN INDICATION FOR ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE STRATIFY-FALLS PREDICTION MODEL
Conference paper
Archer L. et al, (2022), JOURNAL OF HYPERTENSION, 40, E76 - E76
PREDICTING THE RISK OF FALLS IN PATIENTS WITH AN INDICATION FOR ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE STRATIFY-FALLS PREDICTION MODEL
Conference paper
Archer L. et al, (2022), JOURNAL OF HYPERTENSION, 40, E76 - E76
PREDICTING THE RISK OF FALLS IN PATIENTS WITH AN INDICATION FOR ANTIHYPERTENSIVE TREATMENT: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE STRATIFY-FALLS PREDICTION MODEL
Conference paper
Archer L. et al, (2022), JOURNAL OF HYPERTENSION, 40, E76 - E76
Changes to management of hypertension in pregnancy, and attitudes to self-management: An online survey of obstetricians, before and following the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic
Journal article
Fletcher B. et al, (2021), Pregnancy Hypertension, 26, 54 - 61
Frequency of Renal Monitoring - Creatinine and Cystatin C (FORM-2C): An observational cohort study of patients with reduced eGFR in primary care
Journal article
Fleming S. et al, (2021), British Journal of General Practice, 71, E677 - E684
Erratum: Systematic Review and Metaanalysis Comparing the Bias and Accuracy of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Equations in Community-Based Populations (Clinical Chemistry (2021) 67:8 (1158) DOI: 10.1373/clinchem.2017.276683)
Journal article
McFadden EC. et al, (2021), Clinical Chemistry, 67
Associations between statins and adverse events in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: Systematic review with pairwise, network, and dose-response meta-analyses
Journal article
Cai T. et al, (2021), The BMJ, 374
Estimating the effect of moving meat-free products to the meat aisle on sales of meat and meat-free products: A non-randomised controlled intervention study in a large UK supermarket chain
Journal article
Piernas C. et al, (2021), PLoS Medicine, 18
Current prevalence of self-monitoring of blood pressure during pregnancy: The BUMP Survey
Journal article
Tucker KL. et al, (2021), Journal of Hypertension, 39, 994 - 1001
Design, methods, and reporting of impact studies of cardiovascular clinical prediction rules are suboptimal: a systematic review
Journal article
Ban JW. et al, (2021), Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 133, 111 - 120
Impact of changes to national guidelines on hypertension-related workload: An interrupted time series analysis in English primary care
Journal article
Lay-Flurrie SL. et al, (2021), British Journal of General Practice, 71, E296 - E302
Impact of changes to national guidelines on hypertension-related workload: an interrupted time series analysis in English primary care.
Journal article
Lay-Flurrie SL. et al, (2021), Br J Gen Pract, 71, e296 - e302
Association between antihypertensive treatment and adverse events: systematic review and meta-analysis
Journal article
Albasri A. et al, (2021), The BMJ, 372
Is current body temperature measurement practice fit-for-purpose?
Journal article
Machin G. et al, (2021), Journal of Medical Engineering and Technology, 45, 136 - 144
Long-term monitoring in primary care for chronic kidney disease and chronic heart failure: A multi-method research programme
Journal article
Perera R. et al, (2021), Programme Grants for Applied Research, 9
Associations between statins and adverse events in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review with meta-analysis
Other
Cai T. et al, (2021), JOURNAL OF HUMAN HYPERTENSION, 35, 11 - 12
Long-term health outcomes of people with reduced kidney function in the UK: A modelling study using population health data
Journal article
Schlackow I. et al, (2020), PLoS Medicine, 17
GPs' familiarity with and use of cardiovascular clinical prediction rules: a UK survey study
Journal article
Ban JW. et al, (2020), BJGP Open, 4, 1 - 14

