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The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at Oxford University develops, promotes and disseminates better evidence for health care.
Weight change, cardio-metabolic risk factors and cardiovascular incidence in people with serious mental illness: Protocol of a population-based cohort study in the UK from 1998 to 2020
Introduction People with serious mental illness (SMI), which includes people with diagnoses of schizophrenia spectrum and bipolar disorders, face significant health inequality. This includes a life expectancy reduced by 15-20 years mostly due to premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) compared with the general population. Excess weight gain and related comorbidities are preventable risk factors for CVD. To improve the understanding and management of CVD in people with SMI, we will examine the association between SMI and: (1) weight change; (2) cardio-metabolic risk factors for CVD; and (3) incidence of and mortality from CVD. We will also (4) examine the incidence of referral to weight management services for people with SMI compared with people without SMI. Methods and analysis In this retrospective cohort study, we will link general practice records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. We will establish a cohort of patients diagnosed with SMI between 1998 and 2020 who are matched with up to four controls on age, sex, general practice and calendar year. We will use multivariable mixed-effects linear regression models and Cox proportional hazard models with sequential adjustment for potential confounders identified by separate directed acyclic graphs. Ethics and dissemination This study has been reviewed and approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee for Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency database research. The results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.
Consultations for clinical features of possible cancer and associated urgent referrals before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational cohort study from English primary care
Background: It remains unclear to what extent reductions in urgent referrals for suspected cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic were the result of fewer patients attending primary care compared to GPs referring fewer patients. Methods: Cohort study including electronic health records data from 8,192,069 patients from 663 English practices. Weekly consultation rates, cumulative consultations and referrals were calculated for 28 clinical features from the NICE suspected cancer guidelines. Clinical feature consultation rate ratios (CRR) and urgent referral rate ratios (RRR) compared time periods in 2020 with 2019. Findings: Consultations for cancer clinical features decreased by 24.19% (95% CI: 24.04–24.34%) between 2019 and 2020, particularly in the 6–12 weeks following the first national lockdown. Urgent referrals for clinical features decreased by 10.47% (95% CI: 9.82–11.12%) between 2019 and 2020. Overall, once patients consulted with primary care, GPs urgently referred a similar or greater proportion of patients compared to previous years. Conclusion: Due to the significant fall in patients consulting with clinical features of cancer there was a lower than expected number of urgent referrals in 2020. Sustained efforts should be made throughout the pandemic to encourage the public to consult their GP with cancer clinical features.
Informal carer involvement in the transition of medicines-related care for patients moving from hospital to home: a realist review protocol
IntroductionTransition of care for a patient between hospital and home can cause disruption to normal routines, increasing the risk of medicines-related harm. The transition from hospital to home is more complex when a patient does not self-manage their medicines but relies on an informal or unpaid carer (eg, spouse, family member or friend) to provide support. Given the day-to-day medicines-related support provided by informal carers, there is a need to understand how informal carers manage the transition of care from hospital to home; what aspects of hospital discharge act as barriers and facilitators to their involvement and when, how and why these impact patients.Methods and analysisA realist review will be undertaken to develop a programme theory. The programme theory will theorise which medicines-related interventions are useful to carers, and how they are useful. It will outline what aspects of those interventions are the most useful and why, and how context influences engagement and medicine-related outcomes. The review will be reported in line with the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards guidelines. Data will be selected, screened and extracted based on defined inclusion and exclusion criteria and relevance to the developing programme theory with the involvement of at least two authors acting independently. Inclusion criteria relate to the relevance to hospital discharge where patients move back to their home, where a carer is involved and where interventions relate to medicines use. Searches will be conducted in PubMed, CINAHL (via EBSCOhost) and EMBASE databases (see supplementary materials for a draft search strategy).Patients and public, participation, involvement and engagement (PPIE) will be incorporated into all stages of the review through iterative engagement and discussion with patient, carers and representatives from carer organisations. The review will follow four steps: (1) development of the initial programme theory, (2) evidence search, (3) selection, extracting, and organising data and (4) synthesising evidence and drawing conclusions.Informal carer involvement in transitions of care is a complex and varied phenomena. The programme theory will be shaped by sustained PPIE reflecting the priorities and experiences of lived experience. The realist review be progressively focused so we can develop a better understanding of carer involvement in patient transitions when moving from hospital to home relating to medicines use.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval is not required. The findings of the review will be disseminated via journal articles and through patient and public facing resources such as a visual patient–public-carer focused summary.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021262827.
Inflammatory polyarthritis in the community is not a benign disease: Predicting functional disability one year after presentation
Objective. To predict which patients with early inflammatory polyarthritis presenting to primary care will be functionally disabled one year after presentation, in order to inform treatment and referral decisions. Methods. The study population consisted of 381 patients notified to the Norfolk Arthritis Register, a primary care based inception cohort of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis. Patients were regarded as functionally disabled if they had a Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score of one or more. Clinical, laboratory, and demographic variables easily measured at baseline were analyzed for their ability to predict future disability. Recursive partitioning was used to create a simple decision tree to predict those patients who would be disabled at one year. A logistic regression model was generated on a sample of 277 patients and tested on an independent sample of 104 patients. This was compared with other models, one of which consisted of the 1987 ARA criteria. Results. 112 (29%) patients had a HAQ score of at least 1 at one year. The strongest predictors of future disability were a high baseline HAQ, large joint involvement, female sex, and longer disease duration. The decision tree predicted disability accurately in 67% of patients. Conclusion. It is possible to predict functional outcome at one year among patients with early inflammatory polyarthritis presenting to primary care using simple clinical variables measured at baseline. Satisfying the 1987 ARA criteria could not be used to predict future disability.
Ethnic inequities in routine childhood vaccinations in England 2006–2021: an observational cohort study using electronic health records
Background: Population groups that are underserved by England's childhood vaccination programme must be identified to address the country's declining vaccination coverage. We examined routine childhood vaccination coverage in England by maternal ethnicity between 2006 and 2021. Methods: We created first, second and fifth birthday cohorts using mother-child linked electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum. After validation against the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and National Health Service England (NHSE) annual statistical reports, we described vaccination coverage for each vaccine by ethnicity and year. We used modified Poisson regression to analyse the effect of ethnicity on receiving the primary and full course of each vaccine. Findings: Up to 1,170,804 children born after 1 April 2006 were included in the first birthday cohort, reducing to 645,492 by the fifth birthday. Children were followed up until 31 March 2021 at the latest. Children born to mothers in 9 minority ethnic groups and those of unknown ethnicity had lower vaccination coverage (61.3–97.5%) than the White British group (79.9–97.8%) for all vaccines. Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, Any other Asian background, and White and Asian ethnic groups had similar vaccination coverage to the White British group (above 90% for most vaccines in most years). Inequities particularly affected the Caribbean group (e.g. 61% coverage for the 6/5/4-in-1 full course in 2020–21 by children's fifth birthday; RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.6–0.74 compared with the White British group) and Any other Black, African and Caribbean background (e.g. coverage 68% for the MMR primary course in 2020–21; RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.64–0.78). These inequities widened over the study period. For example, the absolute difference in coverage between the Caribbean and White British groups for the full course of MMR increased from 12% in 2011–12 to 22% in 2019–20. These inequities remained even after accounting for sociodemographic, maternal and birth related factors, and also widened from primary course to full course. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that urgent policy action is needed to address the ethnic inequities throughout England's routine childhood vaccination programme, which have been worsening over time. Funding: University of Oxford Clarendon Fund, St Cross College and Nuffield Department of Population Health.
Blood transfusion, smoking, and obesity as risk factors for the development of rheumatoid arthritis: Results from a primary care-based incident case-control study in Norfolk, England
Objective. To examine a range of demographic, social, and clinical risk factors for the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. Population-based case-control study in Norfolk, England, involving adult patients, ages 18-70, with an inflammatory polyarthritis of <12 months' duration who were recruited from the Norfolk Arthritis Register. Controls, matched for sex and date of birth, were selected from the primary care register of the Norwich Health Authority. Both cases and controls completed identical self-administered questionnaires. Matched analysis of the 165 case- control sets was conducted for the whole group and for the subset in which the cases satisfied the 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA. Results. The controls were of higher socioeconomic status than the cases. This was probably due to response bias. Having a body mass index ≤30 was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 3.74 for developing RA (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.14-12.27). RA was also associated with a history of blood transfusion (OR 4.83, 95% CI 1.29-18.07). Even after correcting for social class, a history of having ever smoked was associated with a higher risk of developing RA (OR 1.66, 95% CI 0.95-3.06). There was no difference between cases and controls in previous exposure to childhood infections, certain surgical procedures, or reproductive history variables. Conclusion. RA has a number of potential environmental triggers, including smoking, obesity, and blood transfusion.
Ethnic inequities in 6-8 week baby check coverage in England 2006- 2021: a cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink
BACKGROUND: Inequities in the coverage of 6-8-week maternal checks, health visitor reviews, and infant vaccinations have been reported in England. Ethnic inequities in 6-8-week baby checks have not been studied nationally. AIM: To examine the effect of maternal ethnicity on 6-8 week baby check coverage in England 2006-2021. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cohort study used electronic health records from primary care in England. METHOD: Baby check coverage was calculated in 16 ethnic groups, by year and region. Risk ratios were estimated using modified Poisson regression. Coverage and timing of baby checks in relation to maternal checks and infant vaccinations by ethnic group were calculated. RESULTS: Ethnic inequities in 6-8 week baby check coverage in England varied by year and region. Coverage increased 2006-2007 to 2015-2016, then stabilised to 80-90% for most groups. Coverage was lowest for Bangladeshi and Pakistani groups 2006-2007 to 2011-2012. In the West Midlands, coverage was lowest at approximately 60% for four groups: Bangladeshi, Caribbean, African, and Any other Black, African or Caribbean background. In the North West, coverage was lowest for Bangladeshi (65.3%) and Pakistani (69.2%) groups. These patterns remained after adjusting for other factors and persisted over time. Coverage was highest in those whose mothers received a maternal check and those who received at least one dose of 8-week infant vaccinations. CONCLUSION: Coordinated action at the level of integrated commissioning boards, primary care networks, and GP practices is required to better understand the reasons behind these inequities and redress the persistent disparities in 6-8 week baby check coverage.
The association between conception history and subsequent postpartum depression and/or anxiety: Evidence from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink 1991–2013
Background: Infertility, and fertility treatment, are associated with psychological distress that may influence subsequent mental health including postpartum depression and anxiety. Methods: Data for women who had a livebirth between 1991 and 2013 were drawn from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Conception history prior to their first recorded birth was categorised as ‘no fertility problems’, ‘untreated subfertility’, ovulation induction (OI), and assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Depression and/or anxiety in the 12 months postpartum were identified using records of diagnoses, symptoms, and prescriptions. Prevalence was compared, and odds ratios estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Of 235,127 mothers, 31,947 (13.6%) had evidence of postpartum depression and/or anxiety. Mothers in the ART group had 22% lower odds of postnatal depression and/or anxiety compared to mothers in the fertile group (OR 0.78; 95% CI [0.70–0.86]; p < 0.0001). Accounting for prior mental health, lifestyle, sociodemographic and pregnancy-related factors reduced the strength of the association (aOR 0.87; 95% CI [0.78–0.97]; p = 0.01). There were no significant associations observed in the untreated subfertility or OI groups. Limitations: As in any analysis of routine data, the quality of recording is important and some information was unavailable (e.g. education, social support). Conclusions: Women with a history of subfertility, OI or ART treatment were not at increased risk of postpartum depression and/or anxiety compared to those with no fertility problems. It is important to explore whether women who underwent ART are less likely to experience depression/anxiety or do not seek help when needed, with implications for their health and care.
National rates and disparities in childhood vaccination and vaccine-preventable disease during the COVID-19 pandemic: English sentinel network retrospective database study
Objectives To describe rates and variation in uptake of pneumococcal and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccines in children and associated change in vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) across the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Retrospective database study of all children aged <19 registered with a general practice in the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre English national sentinel surveillance network between 2 November 2015 and 18 July 2021. Results Coverage of booster dose of pneumococcal vaccine decreased from 94.5% (95% CI 94.3% to 94.7%) at its height on International Organization for Standardization (ISO) week 47 (2020) to 93.6% (95% CI 93.4% to 93.8%) by the end of the study. Coverage of second dose of MMR decreased from 85.0% (95% CI 84.7% to 85.3%) at its height on ISO week 37 (2020) to 84.1% (95% CI 83.8% to 84.4%) by the end of the study. The break point in trends for MMR was at ISO week 34 (2020) (95% CI weeks 32-37 (2020)), while for pneumococcal vaccine the break point was later at ISO week 3 (2021) (95% CI week 53 (2020) to week 8 (2021)). Vaccination coverage for children of white ethnicity was less likely to decrease than other ethnicities. Rates of consultation for VPDs fell and remained low since August 2020. Conclusion Childhood vaccination rates started to fall ahead of the onset of the second wave; this fall is accentuating ethnic, socioeconomic and geographical disparities in vaccine uptake and risks widening health disparities. Social distancing and school closures may have contributed to lower rates of associated VPDs, but there may be increased risk as these measures are removed.
The incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in the United Kingdom: Results from the norfolk arthritis register
This paper provides the first data on the incidence of RA based on a prospective population-based register. All new cases of inflammatory polyarthritis in the Norwich Health Authority are notified by general practitioners to the Norfolk Arthritis Register. The patients are then clinically evaluated by metrologists and blood taken for RF estimation. Cases of RA were defined as all those notified with an onset of symptoms in 1990; who presented by 31 December 1991; and who satisfied the 1987 ARA criteria for RA at the time of presentation. Two hundred and ten patients were notified in the defined time-frame, of whom 104 were classified as having RA. The annual incidence rate was 36/100 000 for women and 14/100 000 for men. RA was rare in men aged under 45 yr. The incidence in men rose steeply with age. The incidence in women rose up to age 45 yr, plateaued to age 75 yr, and fell in the very elderly. © 1994 British Society for Rheumatology.
Ethnic differences and inequities in paediatric healthcare utilisation in the UK: A scoping review
Background Despite the increased policy attention on ethnic health inequities since the COVID-19 pandemic, research on ethnicity and healthcare utilisation in children has largely been overlooked. Objectives This scoping review aimed to describe and appraise the quantitative evidence on ethnic differences (unequal) and inequities (unequal, unfair and disproportionate to healthcare needs) in paediatric healthcare utilisation in the UK 2001-2021. Methods We searched Embase, Medline and grey literature sources and mapped the number of studies that found differences and inequities by ethnic group and healthcare utilisation outcome. We summarised the distribution of studies across various methodological parameters. Results The majority of the 61 included studies (n=54, 89%) identified ethnic differences or inequities in paediatric healthcare utilisation, though inequities were examined in fewer than half of studies (n=27, 44%). These studies mostly focused on primary and preventive care, and depending on whether ethnicity data were aggregated or disaggregated, findings were sometimes conflicting. Emergency and outpatient care were understudied, as were health conditions besides mental health and infectious disease. Studies used a range of ethnicity classification systems and lacked the use of theoretical frameworks. Children's ethnicity was often the explanatory factor of interest while parent/caregiver ethnicity was largely overlooked. Discussion While the current evidence base can assist policy makers to identify inequities in paediatric healthcare utilisation among certain ethnic groups, we outline recommendations to improve the validity, generalisability and comparability of research to better understand and thereby act on ethnic inequities in paediatric healthcare.
Step-Wise Management of Anemia in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary Care: Qualitative Study
Introduction: Anemia is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with increased cardiovascular risk and reduced quality of life, but is often sub-optimally managed. Most patients are managed in primary care alongside other comorbidities. Interventions to improve the management of anemia in CKD in this setting are needed. Methods: We conducted a qualitative study to evaluate how an audit-based education (ABE) intervention might improve the management of anemia in CKD. We explored outcomes that would be relevant to practitioners and patients, that exposed variation of practice from National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines, and whether the intervention was feasible and acceptable. Results: Practitioners (n = 5 groups) and patients (n = 7) from 4 London general practices participated in discussions. Practitioners welcomed the evidence-based step-wise intervention. However, prescribing erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) was felt to be outside of their scope of practice. There was a gap between NICE guidance and clinical practice in primary care. Iron studies were not well understood and anemia management was often conservative or delayed. Patients were often unaware of having CKD, and were more concerned about their other comorbidities, but largely trusted their GPs to manage them appropriately. Conclusions: The first steps of the intervention were welcomed by practitioners, but they expressed concerns about independently prescribing ESAs. Renal physicians and GPs could develop shared care protocols for ESA use in primary care. There is scope to improve awareness of renal anemia, and enhance knowledge of guideline recommendations; and our intervention should be modified accordingly.
BLOod Test Trend for cancEr Detection (BLOTTED): protocol for an observational and prediction model development study using English primary care electronic health record data.
BACKGROUND: Simple blood tests can play an important role in identifying patients for cancer investigation. The current evidence base is limited almost entirely to tests used in isolation. However, recent evidence suggests combining multiple types of blood tests and investigating trends in blood test results over time could be more useful to select patients for further cancer investigation. Such trends could increase cancer yield and reduce unnecessary referrals. We aim to explore whether trends in blood test results are more useful than symptoms or single blood test results in selecting primary care patients for cancer investigation. We aim to develop clinical prediction models that incorporate trends in blood tests to identify the risk of cancer. METHODS: Primary care electronic health record data from the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database will be accessed and linked to cancer registrations and secondary care datasets. Using a cohort study design, we will describe patterns in blood testing (aim 1) and explore associations between covariates and trends in blood tests with cancer using mixed-effects, Cox, and dynamic models (aim 2). To build the predictive models for the risk of cancer, we will use dynamic risk modelling (such as multivariate joint modelling) and machine learning, incorporating simultaneous trends in multiple blood tests, together with other covariates (aim 3). Model performance will be assessed using various performance measures, including c-statistic and calibration plots. DISCUSSION: These models will form decision rules to help general practitioners find patients who need a referral for further investigation of cancer. This could increase cancer yield, reduce unnecessary referrals, and give more patients the opportunity for treatment and improved outcomes.
Electronic cigarettes for smoking cessation: a Cochrane review
BACKGROUND Electronic cigarettes (ECs) are handheld electronic vaping devices which produce an aerosol by heating an e-liquid. People who smoke, healthcare providers and regulators want to know if ECs can help people quit smoking, and if they are safe to use for this purpose. This is a review update conducted as part of a living systematic review. OBJECTIVES To examine the safety, tolerability and effectiveness of using electronic cigarettes (ECs) to help people who smoke tobacco achieve long-term smoking abstinence, in comparison to non-nicotine EC, other smoking cessation treatments and no treatment. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group’s Specialized Register to 1 February 2023, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (Central), Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO to 1 July 2023, and reference-checked and contacted study authors. SELECTION CRITERIA We included trials in which people who smoke were randomized to an EC or control condition. We also included uncontrolled intervention studies in which all participants received an EC intervention as these studies have the potential to provide further information on harms and longer-term use. Studies had to report an eligible outcome. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We followed standard Cochrane methods for screening and data extraction. Critical outcomes were abstinence from smoking after at least six months, adverse events (AEs), and serious adverse events (SAEs). We used a fixed-effect Mantel-Haenszel model to calculate risk ratios (RRs) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) for dichotomous outcomes. For continuous outcomes, we calculated mean differences. Where appropriate, we pooled data in pairwise and network meta-analyses (NMA). MAIN RESULTS We included 88 completed studies (10 new to this update), representing 27,235 participants, of which 47 were randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Of the included studies, we rated ten (all but one contributing to our main comparisons) at low risk of bias overall, 58 at high risk overall (including all non-randomized studies), and the remainder at unclear risk. There is high certainty that nicotine EC increases quit rates compared to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). In absolute terms, this might translate to an additional four quitters per 100. There is moderate-certainty evidence that the rate of occurrence of AEs is similar between groups. SAEs were rare, and there is insufficient evidence to determine whether rates differ between groups due to very serious imprecision. There is moderate-certainty evidence, limited by imprecision, that nicotine EC increases quit rates compared to non-nicotine EC. In absolute terms, this might lead to an additional three quitters per 100. There is moderate-certainty evidence of no difference in the rate of AEs between these groups. There is insufficient evidence to determine whether rates of SAEs differ between groups, due to very serious imprecision. Due to issues with risk of bias, there is low-certainty evidence that, compared to behavioral support only/no support, quit rates may be higher for participants randomized to nicotine EC. In absolute terms, this represents an additional four quitters per 100. There was some evidence that (non-serious) AEs may be more common in people randomized to nicotine EC and, again, insufficient evidence to determine whether rates of SAEs differed between groups. Results from the NMA were consistent with those from pairwise meta-analyses for all critical outcomes, and there was no indication of inconsistency within the networks. Data from non-randomized studies were consistent with RCT data. The unwanted effects (at medium and short term) reported most often with nicotine EC were throat or mouth irritation, headache, cough and feeling sick. These appeared similar to those people experience when using NRT. These effects were reduced over time as people continued using nicotine EC. AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONS There is high-certainty evidence that ECs with nicotine increase quit rates compared to NRT and moderate-certainty evidence that they increase quit rates compared to ECs without nicotine. Evidence comparing nicotine EC with usual care/no treatment also suggests benefit, but is less certain due to risk of bias inherent in the study design. Confidence intervals were for the most part wide for data on AEs, SAEs and other safety markers, with no difference in AEs between nicotine and non-nicotine ECs nor between nicotine ECs and NRT. Overall incidence of SAEs was low across all study arms. We did not detect evidence of serious harm from nicotine EC, but the longest follow-up was two years and the number of studies was small. The main limitation of the evidence base remains imprecision due to the small number of RCTs, often with low event rates. Further RCTs are underway. To ensure the review continues to provide up-todate information to decision-makers, this review is a living systematic review. We run searches monthly, with the review updated when relevant new evidence becomes available.
Early detection of colorectal cancer using symptoms and the ColonFlag: case-control and cohort studies
Background: Early detection of colorectal cancer confers substantial prognostic benefit. Most symptoms are non-specific and easily missed. The ColonFlag algorithm identifies risk of undiagnosed colorectal cancer using age, sex and changes in full blood count (FBC) indices. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the ColonFlag detects undiagnosed colorectal cancer prior to the recording of symptoms in general practice. Methods: : We conducted case-control and cohort studies by linking primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with colorectal cancer diagnoses from the National Cancer Registry. A ColonFlag score was derived for each FBC. We assessed the prevalence of symptoms at six-monthly intervals prior to index date (diagnosis date for cases, randomly selected date for controls). We then derived odds ratios (ORs) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for the ColonFlag, and for symptoms using logistic regression at each interval (primary outcome 18-24 months). Results: : We included 1,893,641 patients, 10,875,556 FBCs and 8,918,037 ColonFlag scores. ColonFlag scores began to increase in cases compared with controls around 3-4 years before diagnosis. The AUROC for a diagnosis 18-24 months following the ColonFlag score was 0.736 (95% CI 0.715-0.759), falling to 0.536 (95% CI 0.523-0.548) with adjustment for age. ORs for individual symptoms became non-significant prior to 12 months before index date, except for abdominal pain (females OR=1.29, p<0.0001 at 12-18 months) and rectal bleeding (females OR=2.09, males OR=1.92, p<0.0001 at 18-24 months). Conclusions: : Symptoms appear relatively late in the colorectal cancer process and are limited for supporting early stage detection. The ColonFlag can discriminate usefully at 18-24 months before diagnosis, suggesting a role for this algorithm in primary care, although some of its discriminatory ability comes from the age variable.
Incidence of rheumatoid arthritis is not related to indicators of socioeconomic deprivation.
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors in susceptibility to rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: A prospective population based register of inflammatory joint disease (NOAR) recruited 687 adults between 1990 and 1992, of whom 50% satisfied ARA criteria for RA at presentation. Using census data, social class specific incidence rates were calculated for both sexes. A correlation analysis was undertaken examining the association between incidence rates and 5 indicators of socioeconomic status. RESULTS: There was no trend of increasing incidence with declining social class. None of the 5 indicators examined showed any evidence of association with incidence (rs range 0.0-0.3). CONCLUSION: In contrast to the data on factors influencing outcome in established RA, the socioeconomic status variables examined did not explain susceptibility patterns in the population studied.